EVENT RECAP: 2023 Annual China Workshop on Subnational Levels - Opportunities with Low-carbon Transport Transition
Photo provided by WRI China.
A recent study by the World Resources Institute (WRI) reveals that, from 2012 to 2019, most of China's provinces witnessed growing shares of transport carbon emissions in the energy-related carbon emissions, and the transport sector has become a major source of energy-related carbon emissions, particularly in economically advanced provinces or those characterized by a considerable tertiary industry presence. At the same time, as outlined in the "Accelerating the Construction of Transport Strong Nation Action Plan (2023-2027)", China is committed to building a strong transportation network in the coming years. As a result, how provinces and cities could control the growth of transport carbon emissions while maintaining the momentum of developing a “Transport Strong Nation” is increasingly important.
To address this challenge, WRI and the Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center jointly organized a workshop on August 2nd, 2023 to explore the transport sector’s decarbonization opportunities on subnational levels. As part of the NDC Transport Initiative for Asia (NDC-TIA), the workshop highlighted several key insights that emerged from subnational transport decarbonization practice, such as the synergy among carbon emission reduction, economic growth, and air pollution control, the imperative of a just transition, and the importance of developing low-carbon transportation solutions tailored to local contexts. The workshop also marked the release of a report titled "The Path to Zero: A Vision for Decarbonised Transport in Asia" (Chinese version) by the Council for Decarbonising Transport in Asia, which is set up under the NDC-TIA to bring together diverse perspectives and experience for zero-carbon transport.
The event brought together experts from Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), Agora Verkehrswende, WRI, Vehicle Emission Control Center of Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center, Transport Planning Research Institute, Zhejiang Academy of Transport Science, Hunan Carbon Peaking and Neutrality Advisory Committee, Inner Mongolia Intelligent and Carbon Neutral Logistics Research Institute, Hangzhou, Foshan, and Dongguan Transport Bureaus, Energy Foundation China, Peking University - Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy, and State Grid Sichuan Electricity Research Institute and more.
Decarbonization’s Role in Forging a Strong Transportation Nation
Transport decarbonization, particularly at the local level, is critical. According to WRI’s study, subnational governments in China have more authority and discretion over transport decarbonization, compared to national governments. In total, with subnational mitigation policies, they can deliver 83% of China transport sector’s decarbonization potential. Urda Eichhorst from GIZ articulated that Chinese provinces and cities wield significant influence over passenger and freight transportation, thus underscoring subnational endeavors in the pursuit of decarbonization.
Low carbon transport has become a cornerstone of constructing a Transport Strong nation. According to the “Accelerating the Construction of Transport Strong Nation Action Plan (2023-2027)," the next five year marks a new era of building a Transport Strong Nation in China. It is envisioned that by 2027, China will build a modern and comprehensive transport system. According to Wu Rui from Transport Planning Research Institute, the Ministry of Transport has piloted national projects since 2019, to support provinces and cities to achieve the target set for Transport Strong Nation. Such pilot projects include but not limited to the promotion of clean-energy/ new-energy vehicles and ships, green ports and shipping, freight modal shift, and construction of integrated energy service stations providing oil, gas, hydrogen, and electricity services.
Globally, the promotion of low-carbon transport also holds the potential to stimulate economic growth. According to Christian Hochfeld from Agora Verkehrswende, due to the long project cycle of infrastructure construction with modal shift, zero-emission vehicles transition can offer short-term decarbonization and economic growth potential, thereby being the most viable near-term transport decarbonization measure in Germany. Agora’s recent study underscores that for Germany to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, zero-emission heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) need to reach 70% of HDT annual sales by 2030. Although this sales target appears ambitious, the survey to German original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reveals that the industry is set to deliver on an even more ambitious sales target of 75% around 2030.
Zhang Yuntian from ICCT then introduced the progress of the HDT electrification in China. Based on ICCT’s survey conducted in Guangdong, Hainan, and Yulin in Shaanxi, electric HDTs have been widely deployed in short-distance duty cycles such as construction sites, coal mines, seaports, and cement and steel plants. To enable the accelerated adoption of electric HDTs, challenges such as insufficient vehicle power outputs, payload loss, limited battery cycle life, and lack of charging/refuelling infrastructure need to be addressed.
Synergy with Air Pollution Reduction and Just Transition is Necessary
The coordinated management of transport-related air pollutant emissions is instrumental to transport decarbonization. Ma Dong from Vehicle Emission Control Center of Ministry of Ecology and Environment advocated for an integrated system encompassing both tailpipe pollutants and GHG emission standards for new vehicles (and in-use vehicles on the market). Further, he mentioned that Ministry of Ecology and Environment has established a performance-based grading system for vehicles used in key industries (such as steel, cement, petrochemical, etc.), which has played an important role in promoting electric HDTs. Yin Le, the senior manager at the Energy Foundation, also believes that efforts in improving air quality can promote transport decarbonization. The performance-based grading policy has helped Tangshan, Inner Mongolia, and other places within the key regions of air pollution prevention and control to lead the promotion of electric HDTs.
Liu Zhi, the director of the Peking University - Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy, introduced key principles of transport decarbonization outlined in the report of “The Path to Zero: A Vision for Decarbonised Transport in Asia”. He highlighted that a fair and just transition is crucial to those most affected by transport emission mitigation measures, such as small- and medium-sized enterprises, low-income households, and women. If implemented properly, transport decarbonization can facilitate job creation and equity.
Tailoring Decarbonizing Strategies to Local Contexts
Xue Lulu, Urban Mobility Manager of WRI China, emphasized the differences of transport carbon emissions across provinces in terms of magnitude, growth rates, and primary sources of emissions. Therefore, it is necessary for local governments to develop transport decarbonization policies that are tailored to local contexts, while seeking synergies with economic growth.
Local governments in China have already made strides in transport decarbonization. During the workshop, representatives from municipal and provincial transport departments and research institutes across the eastern, central, and western provinces shared their experience:
Eastern Regions: Despite high transport carbon emission, growth rates have slowed down and have been decoupled from economic growth and urbanization. Notably, transport carbon emission growth in Zhejiang has gradually slowed down, as explained by Bai Hongyu from Zhejiang Academy of Transport Science. The province is building a digital platform to support the accounting of transport carbon emissions and the application of carbon credits. Representatives from the local transport bureaus introduced that Foshan and Dongguan in the Greater Bay Area are actively promoting freight mode shifts to railways or waterways. Dongguan is a national demonstration city for freight intermodal connections and is an important transit point for logistics. Goods from the Pearl River Delta region gather in Dongguan and are transported to Central Asia and Europe by CHINA RAILWAY Express. Foshan has cooperated with Shenzhen and Guangzhou to establish a port network and has upgraded its waterways to promote efficient and connected water transportation. In addition, Foshan has also taken the lead in the “Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration and Application City Clusters”, playing a leading role in promoting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Central and Western Regions: The transport carbon emission in the central and western regions continually grows and is still coupled with economic growth, population change, and urbanization. According to Zhang Fan, the deputy secretary of the Hunan Province Carbon Peaking and Neutrality Advisory Committee, the private car ownership per household in Hunan is still lower than that in developed countries. Therefore, it is expected that its demand for transportation will continue to grow rapidly in the near future. Hunan’s future transport decarbonization efforts focus on the revitalization of public transit services, the expansion of inland waterways, the promotion of new energy trucks, and the adoption of smart logistics to improve logistic efficiency.
Despite rapid emission growth, growth opportunities of transport decarbonization can be forged through strategic alignment with local industries. According to Zhao Xiaoli, the director of Inner Mongolia Intelligent and Carbon Neutral Logistics Research Institute, Inner Mongolia has leveraged its coal energy transformation and new energy resources to accelerate the adoption of new energy HDTs and catalyze the investment across the entire value chain including renewable energy equipment production, battery manufacturing, charging and refuelling infrastructure, new energy vehicle manufacturing, and logistics, bringing tens of billions of investment to the region. Besides, Liu Xueyuan from the State Grid Sichuan Electricity Research Institute illustrated that electric vehicle and grid integration is necessary to alleviate the peak-valley differences in the power grid. It is estimated that through demand response provided by electric vehicles, Sichuan Province’s annual cost of grid investment would drop significantly.
Finally, effective implementation of local policies requires accurate statistical data and a credible method to estimate transport carbon emissions. Qu Xinming from the Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center introduced Shenzhen's transport carbon and pollutant emission models on the street level. The high-precision model plays a pivotal role in evaluating local policies and predicting transport emissions, thereby supporting policy making on travel demand management, restricted road access for trucks, and other medium- and long-term transport emission reduction policies.
The workshop facilitated the sharing of achievements and experiences of transport decarbonization on the subnational level. It is a complex task to strike a balance among goals of transport decarbonization, economic growth, air pollution mitigation, and just transition under various local contexts, and it demands more profound dialogues among diverse stakeholders.
Author: Ke Chen, WRI Transport Research Analyst
